Houston homicide rate drops 22 percent

See the latest FBI statistics

Violent crime declined in Houston and across the nation in 2011 compared with the previous year, continuing a historic downward trend that began in the last decade.

Murder and non-negligent manslaughter in Houston decreased 22 percent in 2011 compared to the year before, according to FBI crimes statistics released Monday. Murders and non-negligent manslaughter went from 269 in 2010 to 198 in 2011, according to the FBI.

In that same time frame the FBI said per-capita rate of forcible rape in Houston jumped 15 percent, and aggravated assault increased 5 percent.

Violent crime increased in Deer Park, League City and Alvin, while declining in La Porte, Pearland, Pasadena, Lake Jackson, Rosenberg, Conroe, Texas City, Sugar Land, Baytown, Missouri City and Friendswood.

No explanation

The long decrease in criminal activity, including violent and property crime, has defied explanation by criminal justice and policing experts, although there are many competing theories.

Professor Larry Hoover, director of the Police Research Center at Sam Houston State University, noted the steady decrease runs counter to the theory that crimes goes up during times of economic distress.

"We know that it's probably a combination of factors. There's no single phenomenon which has resulted in this incredible decrease in crime since 2002," Hoover said. "What is particularly interesting in this decrease is it comes during a recession, because what you normally expect in an economic downturn is that violent and nonviolent crime increases. The fact that is not happening calls into question a lot of our assumptions about what drives crime in the first place."

Hoover said the current thinking is the nation is experiencing a cultural shift, meaning that "criminal behavior is being less acceptable among social groups, but that's difficult to quantify."

Ray Hunt, president of the Houston Police Officers' Union, predicted the decline would be greater if there were more officers to perform preventative police operations. Estimates are the Houston force is understaffed by 1,000 to 1,500 officers, he said.

"Unfortunately, I can't attribute it to proactive policing simply because we are understaffed and can't do that at the level we need to," Hunt said. "We have a lot of officers out there doing a great job, but unfortunately we don't have the number of officers to bring those numbers down even further.''

Influence of police

Phillip Lyons, a professor in the College of Criminal Justice at Sam Houston State University, said that while police agencies take credit when crime rate dips, there are actually few societal factors law enforcement can control.

"Your local police force, when you see these trends, will say it's their policing and management that are responsible," Lyons said. "But when they go the other way, they're silent. The truth is policing practices only have a marginal effect on crime."

james.pinkerton@chron.com

yang.wang@chron.com

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